Understanding the Mysteries of Human Behavior is a Great Course Lecture series by Mark Leary, Ph.D. Garonzik Family Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience Duke University (2012). In Lecture 8, “Why Are So Many People So Stressed Out?” Dr. Leary points out that much of modern day stress emanates from the fact that our lives are built around a “Delayed Return Environment”. This is defined as a world in which “people invest a lot of time and effort each day into tasks that don’t have any … [Read more...]

Photo fascination is taking over the consciousness of a substantial number of people. Wherever you look, people are browsing thru “social media”. Walking and scrolling. Gazing down constantly, the prospects of permanent neck damage seem certain. Dinner, family, meetings and all manner of activity are dominated by the pervasive digital world seen through the small portal of a phone screen. With the riveted concentration of a scientist editing a PhD thesis, people are glued to this “critical” … [Read more...]

Every ninety days or so, I begin to think about what I can write that will fortify the process of building portfolios and create the best balance between risk and reward. All of the material that I produce is intended to give perspective on what is currently happening in our world and yet the message seems to always lead back to the same place. This endeavor of seeking our greatest potential as investors will never be easy. These commentaries are one of the toughest things that I now do with my … [Read more...]

The Law of Small Numbers   The surprise outcome of the Presidential  election is The Story of 2016.  The campaign season was as unsettling and disruptive to the public consciousness as could ever be imagined. The attention of our country and much of the world bore down with such force as to render almost all other important stories lacking proper attention.   The political pundits, polling, prediction markets, and statisticians all came together in the fallacious conclusion that we … [Read more...]

Recent AP wire news flash 9-28-16 : OPEC countries neared agreement on a preliminary accord Wednesday to limit oil production, sending oil prices upward, despite lingering differences between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran…Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $2.38, or 5.3 percent, to $47.05 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up $2.72, or 5.9 percent, to $48.69 a barrel in … [Read more...]

The British are leaving!  The British are leaving!... and it’s not a good thing. The confusion caused by the recent surprise outcome of a United Kingdom referendum to choose to “Leave” the European Union has been quite dramatic. The uncertain nature of the choice to leave has been driving big swings up and down in equity prices worldwide since the outcome was announced. The uncertain process of the United Kingdom leaving the EU leaves the markets feeling extra anxious. There is no precedent … [Read more...]

The markets began 2016 with a fever induced by concerns about global growth, dysfunction in China, rapid declines in commodity and energy prices and rising interest rates in the United States. These fears led to one of the most negative calendar year starts ever in US markets. On top of implosion in the Mid-East, contentious US presidential primaries and elections in 2016 and numerous other macro-economic concerns, it seems we were looking at a year filled with challenging problems.   Later … [Read more...]

The past 12 months have been a volatile sequence that has amounted to running in place. The fourth quarter was positive with a move that gained back most of the summer losses. The S&P 500 is closing out 2015 with a total return of 1.4%. For complete market coverage see http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp For more interesting perspective on the market in 2015 see http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-the-year-in-money/ At the end of every year we are … [Read more...]

The market is in correction mode. We have just experienced the worst 90 days since 2011. The S&P 500 index was down 6.9% for the quarter ended September 30, 2015. The Wall Street Journal notes “daily swings grew bigger as investors fretted over China…while a commodities selloff and rising junk-bond yields added to the anxiety.” The market is struggling with the challenges of ultra-low interest rates and the likely increase in the cost of money now being considered by the Federal Reserve. … [Read more...]

The Market moved very little in Q2 2015. For update see http://www.bloomberg.com/markets These “uncertain times”. This expression is utilized constantly to express the complexity of our world and the opaque and unknowable future. It is interesting to stop and think about what times were more certain. Looking back at different historical events that were daunting, it is quite deceptive in hindsight to think that outcomes were foreseeable or predictable. The range of outcomes after WWI, WW2, the … [Read more...]