Every ninety days or so, I begin to think about what I can write that will fortify the process of building portfolios and create the best balance between risk and reward. All of the material that I produce is intended to give perspective on what is currently happening in our world and yet the message seems to always lead back to the same place. This endeavor of seeking our greatest potential as investors will never be easy. These commentaries are one of the toughest things that I now do with my … [Read more...]

The Law of Small Numbers   The surprise outcome of the Presidential  election is The Story of 2016.  The campaign season was as unsettling and disruptive to the public consciousness as could ever be imagined. The attention of our country and much of the world bore down with such force as to render almost all other important stories lacking proper attention.   The political pundits, polling, prediction markets, and statisticians all came together in the fallacious conclusion that we … [Read more...]

Recent AP wire news flash 9-28-16 : OPEC countries neared agreement on a preliminary accord Wednesday to limit oil production, sending oil prices upward, despite lingering differences between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran…Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $2.38, or 5.3 percent, to $47.05 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up $2.72, or 5.9 percent, to $48.69 a barrel in … [Read more...]

The British are leaving!  The British are leaving!... and it’s not a good thing. The confusion caused by the recent surprise outcome of a United Kingdom referendum to choose to “Leave” the European Union has been quite dramatic. The uncertain nature of the choice to leave has been driving big swings up and down in equity prices worldwide since the outcome was announced. The uncertain process of the United Kingdom leaving the EU leaves the markets feeling extra anxious. There is no precedent … [Read more...]

The markets began 2016 with a fever induced by concerns about global growth, dysfunction in China, rapid declines in commodity and energy prices and rising interest rates in the United States. These fears led to one of the most negative calendar year starts ever in US markets. On top of implosion in the Mid-East, contentious US presidential primaries and elections in 2016 and numerous other macro-economic concerns, it seems we were looking at a year filled with challenging problems.   Later … [Read more...]

The past 12 months have been a volatile sequence that has amounted to running in place. The fourth quarter was positive with a move that gained back most of the summer losses. The S&P 500 is closing out 2015 with a total return of 1.4%. For complete market coverage see http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp For more interesting perspective on the market in 2015 see http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-the-year-in-money/ At the end of every year we are … [Read more...]

The market is in correction mode. We have just experienced the worst 90 days since 2011. The S&P 500 index was down 6.9% for the quarter ended September 30, 2015. The Wall Street Journal notes “daily swings grew bigger as investors fretted over China…while a commodities selloff and rising junk-bond yields added to the anxiety.” The market is struggling with the challenges of ultra-low interest rates and the likely increase in the cost of money now being considered by the Federal Reserve. … [Read more...]

The Market moved very little in Q2 2015. For update see http://www.bloomberg.com/markets These “uncertain times”. This expression is utilized constantly to express the complexity of our world and the opaque and unknowable future. It is interesting to stop and think about what times were more certain. Looking back at different historical events that were daunting, it is quite deceptive in hindsight to think that outcomes were foreseeable or predictable. The range of outcomes after WWI, WW2, the … [Read more...]

Q1 2015 was a volatile quarter that ended nearly flat. The S&P 500 did book a .4% advance, but overall in the US, markets seem to be having difficulty moving higher. We are seeing some gains outside the United States in Germany, and even Japan has been moving up. See complete coverage at http://www.bloomberg.com/markets. Watching the markets gyrate, I can always reassure myself that portfolio values will likely be higher at some point in the future. The growth may take a long time to … [Read more...]

A Time for Resolve To be grateful for family and friends To view health as the greatest blessing and to strive to live in more wholesome ways Seek patience and calm in the face of challenge Push for discipline and persistence in the pursuit of projects and goals Recognize giving as the most important act, and embrace the rewards that charity will bring Calm and serenity is the ultimate goal, to be sought one minute at a time Always bring a sense of humor to make everything better As a … [Read more...]