Q3 2019 has been filled with noise and volatility signifying little. The S&P 500 has moved up about 1.2% in the last 90 days. In spite of the instability created by trade threats and rising trade barriers investors are up substantially since 1-1-19. Thru the first three quarters, the market is up nearly 20%. This is quite similar to last year, where gains turned to losses by an historic downswing in December … [Read more...]

The market has just completed the best 1st half performance since 1997. This is quite a rebound the downswing in December 2018. https://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp The Fed has undergone a big reversal in posture and interest rate cuts are anticipated as trade conflicts are expected to begin slowing the US and global economies. With 30 year mortgages under 4% it is questionable how much room rates actually have to decrease or what impact these potential … [Read more...]

The Federal Reserve stated on 3-20-19, "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes." Patient is the key word. That means that interest rate policy will look to continue cheap money for the near term or even longer. Q4 2018 turned dramatically negative as the Fed sent signals that rising … [Read more...]

The rapid downswing of Q4 2018 is shaped increasingly by hordes of techno driven trading firms that have no interest in investing. Oceans of rapid paced money seeking an edge pile on to the selling as markets go negative and likely cause huge overshooting of what actual value warrants. Numerous products designed to make money as stock prices fall facilitate the pile-up of "shorts" and other trading pools seeking advantage. The WSJ noted on 12-26-18 :  Behind the broad, swift market slide of 2018 … [Read more...]

Computers aren’t for voting. Voting by computer sounds really cool and futuristic— if this were 1969. But now that we all have computers, we know that they are, in fact, huge f**k-up machines. They’re like having a compact, silicon version of Gary Busey on your desk— you never know what’s going to happen. I’ll tell you what’ll happen: Some 13-year-old hacker in Finland is going to hand the presidency to Kylie Minogue. You thought the 2004 election was bad— wait until the next one is decided by a … [Read more...]

Disclaimer: I comment on our current political drama as it has significant implications for our thinking as long term investors. Significant effort is taken here to not offend anyone’s ideological sensibilities, nor do I wish any ill will to either of our political parties. The hope is for rational, sustainable federal, regional and local policies that strengthen this great American System and grow the pie so that we all prosper. Rising government debt, rising interest rates, tariffs spawning … [Read more...]

In my research on cognitive bias, heuristic and brain fallacies I have been constructing a manual that I hope to eventually publish. Here is a brief except of recent material… Thank the Critic And now that you don't have to be perfect, you can be good. John Steinbeck The trouble with most of us is that we’d rather be ruined by praise than saved by criticism. Norman Vincent Peale When someone offers constructive criticism, questions your premise or flat out suggests that you are … [Read more...]