Q2 2023 Commentary With Nasdaq up nearly 30% year to date, it was on track for its best first half in four decades. The S&P 500, up 14.5% through the first half, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, up 2.5%. See MarketWatch for complete recap. 2022 was a painful year, as rapidly increasing interest rates have torn away the era of cheap money. Now it seems that the global economy may adjust to higher rates, interest rates may be reaching a level that would be considered more … [Read more...]

Q1 23 has ended with gains, with the NASDAQ index rising a robust 17%, the S&P up 7% and the DOW nearly unchanged for 2023. This is the second consecutive quarter of positive results as the S&P has moved from 3678 on 10-2-22 to close at 4109 on 3-31-23. This upswing is another step in the process of the bear market that began 15 months ago. See The Wall Street Journal markets page for a complete recap. Joseph De La Vega’s “Confusion De Confusiones”, is the earliest known book on the … [Read more...]

2022 has been a significantly down year. The Dow finished down 8.78%, S&P down 19.44% and NASDAQ down 33.1%. For further stats see marketwatch or Forbes. From an early age, I have memories of observing my father reading the newspaper in a ritualistic fashion. Ronald Shink had ongoing commentaries regarding what he saw as right and wrong in business, politics, and investing. He would often be ranting with anger about a perceived wrong or injustice. Just as frequently, he would be provoking … [Read more...]

Material discussed is meant for general/informational purposes only and it is not to be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, please note that individual situations can vary therefore, the information should be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure against loss. After reversing its gains from … [Read more...]

American gas has gone to $6 per gallon…run for your lives! Before you go, please remember to pack a lunch, bring lots of hydration and dig into a little research: According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, energy, and food consumption as a share of disposable income are also historically low. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show gasoline and other fuels account for 2.9% of Americans’ spending, a little more than half of what it was during the late 1970s and early 1980s. People … [Read more...]

The “Wall of Worry” refers to the propensity of financial markets to rise in the face of ostensibly insurmountable problems. The negative issues being revealed for investors are a true gut check. Q1 22 began by swiftly moving into a “correction” or 10% downswing. The S&P 500 was down over 12% at the low point of the quarter. A rally in March left US markets down 5% on 3-31-22. More market data is available at Bloomberg or WSJ. The pandemic of COVID-19 has declined dramatically and may … [Read more...]

Equity investors have become conditioned to gains. The post 2008 experience has embedded the idea that investing = gains. This may be true over longer periods, but we have become spoiled. The warning consistently given is to “buckle up” as downswings from the recent run up are likely. In addition to securing your emotional seatbelt, here are a few other coping mechanisms for the corrections that may arrive soon: Long walks Cycling Watercolor painting Meaningful volunteer … [Read more...]

Hopes for a fade of the Covid-19 virus are rising. As vaccination rates increase and the Delta variant burns itself out, we may be able to see light in the tunnel. Markets are getting volatile as the steroids (zero interest rates and $120b of dollars added to the financial system monthly) of the Federal Reserve are being slowly reduced. The economic consequences of the pandemic would have been much worse without the financial doctoring that was administered by the Fed and its peers around the … [Read more...]

“The master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts .... He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular, in terms of the general, and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of the future. No part of man's nature or his institutions must be entirely outside his regard. He must be purposeful … [Read more...]

I can prove anything I'll make you admit again and again That I can prove anything The way that it's read again and again… We are the angry mob We read the papers everyday We like who we like, we hate who we hate But we're also easily swayed “The Angry Mob” lyrics, by artist Kaiser Chiefs; Release date 8-20-2007 January 6, 2021 was an event that brought historic violence. The angry mob was as busy posting selfies, a blessing that likely stopped them from harming more … [Read more...]