2025 began with optimism carried over from 2024’s rally. Investors embraced AI driven momentum, and tech giants continued dominating headlines. By spring, the mood shifted dramatically. A sudden tariff shock, “Liberation Day,” in April rattled global markets; trillions of valuations were wiped out overnight. Fear surged as the markets reigning emotion, as a prolonged downturn seemed imminent.  TACO ensued as tariffs were rolled back, reassuring markets, and investor confidence … [Read more...]

U.S. equities had a strong quarter; the S&P 500 has a 14% gain so far this year, Dow Industrials up 9.1% and Nasdaq composite up 17%. Technology led the growth with AI, semiconductors, and communication sectors powering much of the gains. Small caps and cyclical names benefited from expectations of looser regulatory policy and optimism around economic resilience. Equity demand continues while growth held up better than many feared. Consumer spending, business investment (especially in tech … [Read more...]

Q2 2025 was one of the most dramatic market quarters in many years. The volatile trading action began with trade / tariff policy shock on April 2, 2025. Investor fears of a world where the United States sought to punitively level high tariffs on the entire world were a frightening revelation. A vigorous rebound then began as the S&P 500 gained 10.9% in the second quarter after April’s tariff-induced selloff, while bonds notched a modest gain of 1%. See Morningstar for a complete market … [Read more...]

The S&P 500 posted back-to-back annual gains for 2023 and 2024 of more than 20% for the first time since the late 1990s. Smaller companies, as measured by Russell 2000, were up 10%. The Dow was up 13%, and the Nasdaq was best with a 29% return. For more quantitative commentary, see “10 charts that tell the story of markets and the economy in 2024.” Year-end is when we take stock of what happened and look forward toward emerging trends. This commentary favors historical study rather than … [Read more...]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 3211 points, or 8.2% this quarter, to 42330. The S&P 500 closed up 302 points, or 5.5% this quarter, to 5762. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 456 points, or 2.6% this quarter. See MarketWatch for more data. The main event for markets in Q3 was the Fed initiating a new easing cycle, beginning with a half-percent rate cut during the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On September 18, 2024, Federal Reserve issued the following FOMC … [Read more...]

Q2 2024 was driven by big tech posting significant gains, while the broader market is inching forward. The S&P 500 has climbed 14% this year, yet the Equal-Weighted S&P is up less than 5%. See Marketwatch for additional market data. The majority of stocks have gone up very little, while a small select group of stocks are surging. There is a small set of 5-10 stocks that are driving a large portion of the gains. This if referred to as “market concentration”. There is a wide gap between … [Read more...]

Q1 24   “Stock Market Surges to Start the Year: 22 Record Highs in 3 Months The S&P 500, rising 10 percent, set the pace as investors looked forward to interest rate cuts” The New York Times declared on 3-29-24. It is tempting to reference the Energizer Bunny when observing U.S. economic activity and market performance. We have a domestic economy that continues to grow and innovate in the face of persistent challenges.   From the article:   “The Russell … [Read more...]

2023 Markets have posted above average results driven by a robust fourth quarter for the S&P 500 up over 10%. Inflation data has greatly improved, the Fed is indicating the possibility for rate cuts in 2024 and a positive narrative is in full effect. Including the downswing of 2022, the results of the last 5 years have been robust. The highest returns have been delivered by technology stocks as the NASDAQ posted a 44% gain for 2023. At the end of 2022 the market sentiment was extremely … [Read more...]

The S&P 500 sank 3.6% in the third quarter, yet the index was up 11.7% this year to date. The Dow was down 2.6% while the NASDAQ was down 4.12% for the quarter. See MarketWatch for details. Global short-term interest rates rose while expectations for the pace of rate hikes to slow and eventually stop during 2023. The impact of the abrupt departure from the ultra-low rates era may weigh on financial conditions in the quarters to come. Pressure is building as people consider taking fixed … [Read more...]

Q2 2023 Commentary With Nasdaq up nearly 30% year to date, it was on track for its best first half in four decades. The S&P 500, up 14.5% through the first half, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, up 2.5%. See MarketWatch for complete recap. 2022 was a painful year, as rapidly increasing interest rates have torn away the era of cheap money. Now it seems that the global economy may adjust to higher rates, interest rates may be reaching a level that would be considered more … [Read more...]